Final Oscars voting is February 22-27, 2024. The 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.
The State of the Race
It both is and isn’t a shock that when all was said and done, “Killers of the Flower Moon” star Leonardo DiCaprio missed out on a Best Actor nomination. Though pegged as an early favorite, he already won the award relatively recently (for “The Revenant” in 2016) after quite a few at-bats.
Bradley Cooper now stands out as the only nominee to have been up for this specific category at the Oscars before. However, the prevailing perception has been that the “Maestro” filmmaker has campaigned as a director first and actor second. That doesn’t do much to push voters toward honoring his portrayal of classical music legend Leonard Bernstein.
On the flip-side of actors nominated for playing a real-life figure in a Netflix film is “Rustin” star Colman Domingo, the only person from his film to receive a nod from the Academy. Reviews were mixed for the biopic on how Civil Rights leader Bayard Rustin organized the 1963 March on Washington despite being seen as having too controversial a personal life to be a public figure. But Domingo has been hard on the campaign trail, dressing to the nines, and speaking eloquently about why more people should give his film a chance.
Cillian Murphy, the last nominee who played a real-life person, hasn’t needed to do the same. Anyone voting for Oscar nominees has likely seen the blockbuster biopic “Oppenheimer,” about the father of the atomic bomb already. He also earned a Golden Globe for his performance.
However, everyone’s greatest competition, who also won a Golden Globe in the Comedy/Musical category over fellow Oscar nominee Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) is “The Holdovers” star Paul Giamatti. His viral In-N-Out moment, mixed with his heartfelt winner’s speech at the Critics Choice Awards, helped put him at the top of the list of Best Actor contenders. A bit of justice for his “Sideways” snub almost 20 years ago.
Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood they will win.
Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”)
Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)